Donald Trump is viewed by many as a figure of fun, a racist, and a misogynist. His polls are way down, and at this point it looks like he has no chance of winning the election. Two weeks ago, Microsoft’s Bing gave Hillary Clinton an 87 percent chance of winning (although this has since dropped to 82 percent).
However, an AI system is predicting a completely different result — that Trump will prevail, and become the next president of the United States. What makes its forecast even more interesting is it has correctly identified the outcome of the last three US presidential elections and the results of the Democrat and Republican Primaries.
The AI system, called MogIA, analyses 20 million data points from sources in the US such as Facebook, Twitter, Google and YouTube, and uses this to identify user engagement. According to the system’s creator, engagement is key to winning elections. No candidate with the most engagement in the last 12 years since the system was created has ever lost.
“If Trump loses, it will defy the data trend for the first time in the last 12 years since Internet engagement began in full earnest,” MogIA’s creator Sanjiv Rai, told CNBC.
And Trump’s engagement is truly impressive — it’s currently 25 percent higher than Barack Obama’s was in 2008, when he first became president, although there are significantly more people using social media these days, which skews things slightly.
While the system has worked brilliantly to date, it is a little flawed. Just because someone engages with a Trump tweet doesn’t mean they agree with the sentiment, or that they are supporters. In fact it could well mean the exact opposite in a lot of cases.
We shall find out soon enough who the next president will be, and whether MogIA has managed to nail it once again.