An analyst firm keen to predict Apple smartphone sales has asked 1,500 iPhone owners why they haven’t bought the $1,000-plus flagship iPhone X.
Ped30’s Philip Elmer-DeWitt has shared a note detailing the survey by Piper Jaffray analyst Michael Olson, who states that around 40 percent of the iPhone owners polled said they haven’t upgraded because the iPhone X is too expensive or they prefer a larger screen.
That figure breaks down to just under a third of respondents saying the iPhone X is too expensive, while eight percent want a larger screen.
However, 44 percent said they haven’t upgraded to the iPhone X because their current iPhone works fine, which could mean they might upgrade eventually, or that the new flagship simply isn’t appealing enough to ditch their existing device. A further 17 percent said they hadn’t upgraded for another reason.
Apple is expected to release three new iPhones in the fall, and Olson thinks that these will address the consumers who have been put off by the iPhone X’s price and screen size.
The analyst is predicting Apple will sell 233.8 million phones in 2019, but has lowered its estimate for full-year 2018 sales to 226.3 million from 230 million.
“Based on our survey, that suggests a large pool of potential iPhone buyers are looking for a larger screen or lower-priced option and may, therefore, wait until the next batch of devices is out late this calendar year, pushing a large percentage of upgrades into FY19, we are slightly lowering FY18 iPhone units, from 230 million to 226.3 million,” Olsen wrote.
A Bloomberg report last month said Apple is planning to launch three new iPhones, including its largest-ever iPhone, a refresh of the iPhone X, and a cheaper iPhone X-like device that trades features for a lower price.
Key to the big-screen edition iPhone of 2018 will be that it employs the iPhone X’s edge-to-edge design on a device that’s about the same size as the iPhone 8 Plus. It’s also expected to feature the iPhone X’s Face ID scanner, OLED display, and an A12 processor, which will also power the updated iPhone X.
The cheaper iPhone won’t feature the more expensive OLED in the iPhone X but instead an LCD display and will keep some materials from the iPhone 8 rather than the iPhone X’s stainless steel. Some Apple analysts expect it to feature a 6.1-inch screen but without 3D Touch.